ForecasterSarimax
¶
ForecasterSarimax(regressor, transformer_y=None, transformer_exog=None, fit_kwargs=None, forecaster_id=None)
¶
This class turns ARIMA model from pmdarima library into a Forecaster compatible with the skforecast API. New in version 0.7.0
Parameters:
Name | Type | Description | Default |
---|---|---|---|
regressor |
pmdarima.arima.ARIMA
|
An instance of an ARIMA from pmdarima library. This model internally wraps the statsmodels SARIMAX class. |
required |
transformer_y |
object transformer (preprocessor)
|
An instance of a transformer (preprocessor) compatible with the scikit-learn
preprocessing API with methods: fit, transform, fit_transform and inverse_transform.
ColumnTransformers are not allowed since they do not have inverse_transform method.
The transformation is applied to |
`None`
|
transformer_exog |
object transformer (preprocessor)
|
An instance of a transformer (preprocessor) compatible with the scikit-learn
preprocessing API. The transformation is applied to |
`None`
|
fit_kwargs |
dict
|
Additional arguments to be passed to the |
`None`
|
forecaster_id |
str, int default `None`
|
Name used as an identifier of the forecaster. New in version 0.7.0 |
None
|
Attributes:
Name | Type | Description |
---|---|---|
regressor |
pmdarima.arima.ARIMA
|
An instance of an ARIMA from pmdarima library. The model internally wraps the statsmodels SARIMAX class |
params |
dict
|
Parameters of the sarimax model. |
transformer_y |
object transformer (preprocessor)
|
An instance of a transformer (preprocessor) compatible with the scikit-learn
preprocessing API with methods: fit, transform, fit_transform and inverse_transform.
ColumnTransformers are not allowed since they do not have inverse_transform method.
The transformation is applied to |
transformer_exog |
object transformer (preprocessor)
|
An instance of a transformer (preprocessor) compatible with the scikit-learn
preprocessing API. The transformation is applied to |
window_size |
int
|
Not used, present here for API consistency by convention. |
last_window |
pandas Series
|
Last window the forecaster has seen during training. It stores the
values needed to predict the next |
extended_index |
pandas Index
|
When predicting using |
fitted |
bool
|
Tag to identify if the regressor has been fitted (trained). |
index_type |
type
|
Type of index of the input used in training. |
index_freq |
str
|
Frequency of Index of the input used in training. |
training_range |
pandas Index
|
First and last values of index of the data used during training. |
included_exog |
bool
|
If the forecaster has been trained using exogenous variable/s. |
exog_type |
type
|
Type of exogenous variable/s used in training. |
exog_col_names |
list
|
Names of columns of |
fit_kwargs |
dict
|
Additional arguments to be passed to the |
creation_date |
str
|
Date of creation. |
fit_date |
str
|
Date of last fit. |
skforcast_version |
str
|
Version of skforecast library used to create the forecaster. |
python_version |
str
|
Version of python used to create the forecaster. |
forecaster_id |
str, int
|
Name used as an identifier of the forecaster. |
Source code in skforecast\ForecasterSarimax\ForecasterSarimax.py
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|
fit(y, exog=None)
¶
Training Forecaster.
Additional arguments to be passed to the fit
method of the regressor
can be added with the fit_kwargs
argument when initializing the forecaster.
Parameters:
Name | Type | Description | Default |
---|---|---|---|
y |
pandas Series
|
Training time series. |
required |
exog |
pandas Series, pandas DataFrame
|
Exogenous variable/s included as predictor/s. Must have the same
number of observations as |
`None`
|
Returns:
Type | Description |
---|---|
None
|
Source code in skforecast\ForecasterSarimax\ForecasterSarimax.py
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|
predict(steps, last_window=None, last_window_exog=None, exog=None)
¶
Forecast future values
Generate predictions (forecasts) n steps in the future. Note that if exogenous variables were used in the model fit, they will be expected for the predict procedure and will fail otherwise.
When predicting using last_window
and last_window_exog
, the internal
statsmodels SARIMAX will be updated using its append method. To do this,
last_window
data must start at the end of the index seen by the
forecaster, this is stored in forecaster.extended_index.
Check https://www.statsmodels.org/dev/generated/statsmodels.tsa.arima.model.ARIMAResults.append.html to know more about statsmodels append method.
Parameters:
Name | Type | Description | Default |
---|---|---|---|
steps |
int
|
Number of future steps predicted. |
required |
last_window |
pandas Series
|
Series values used to create the predictors needed in the predictions. Used to make predictions unrelated to the original data. Values have to start at the end of the training data. |
`None`
|
last_window_exog |
pandas Series, pandas DataFrame
|
Values of the exogenous variables aligned with |
`None`
|
exog |
pandas Series, pandas DataFrame
|
Value of the exogenous variable/s for the next steps. |
`None`
|
Returns:
Name | Type | Description |
---|---|---|
predictions |
pandas Series
|
Predicted values. |
Source code in skforecast\ForecasterSarimax\ForecasterSarimax.py
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|
predict_interval(steps, last_window=None, last_window_exog=None, exog=None, alpha=0.05, interval=None)
¶
Forecast future values and their confidence intervals
Generate predictions (forecasts) n steps in the future with confidence intervals. Note that if exogenous variables were used in the model fit, they will be expected for the predict procedure and will fail otherwise.
When predicting using last_window
and last_window_exog
, the internal
statsmodels SARIMAX will be updated using its append method. To do this,
last_window
data must start at the end of the index seen by the
forecaster, this is stored in forecaster.extended_index.
Check https://www.statsmodels.org/dev/generated/statsmodels.tsa.arima.model.ARIMAResults.append.html to know more about statsmodels append method.
Parameters:
Name | Type | Description | Default |
---|---|---|---|
steps |
int
|
Number of future steps predicted. |
required |
last_window |
pandas Series
|
Series values used to create the predictors needed in the predictions. Used to make predictions unrelated to the original data. Values have to start at the end of the training data. |
`None`
|
last_window_exog |
pandas Series, pandas DataFrame
|
Values of the exogenous variables aligned with |
`None`
|
exog |
pandas Series, pandas DataFrame
|
Exogenous variable/s included as predictor/s. |
`None`
|
alpha |
float
|
The confidence intervals for the forecasts are (1 - alpha) %.
If both, |
`0.05`
|
interval |
list
|
Confidence of the prediction interval estimated. The values must be
symmetric. Sequence of percentiles to compute, which must be between
0 and 100 inclusive. For example, interval of 95% should be as
|
`None`
|
Returns:
Name | Type | Description |
---|---|---|
predictions |
pandas DataFrame
|
Values predicted by the forecaster and their estimated interval.
|
Source code in skforecast\ForecasterSarimax\ForecasterSarimax.py
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|
set_params(params)
¶
Set new values to the parameters of the model stored in the forecaster.
Parameters:
Name | Type | Description | Default |
---|---|---|---|
params |
dict
|
Parameters values. |
required |
Returns:
Type | Description |
---|---|
None
|
Source code in skforecast\ForecasterSarimax\ForecasterSarimax.py
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|
set_fit_kwargs(fit_kwargs)
¶
Set new values for the additional keyword arguments passed to the fit
method of the regressor.
Parameters:
Name | Type | Description | Default |
---|---|---|---|
fit_kwargs |
dict
|
Dict of the form {"argument": new_value}. |
required |
Returns:
Type | Description |
---|---|
None
|
Source code in skforecast\ForecasterSarimax\ForecasterSarimax.py
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|
get_feature_importances()
¶
Return feature importances of the regressor stored in the forecaster.
Parameters:
Name | Type | Description | Default |
---|---|---|---|
self |
required |
Returns:
Name | Type | Description |
---|---|---|
feature_importances |
pandas DataFrame
|
Feature importances associated with each predictor. |
Source code in skforecast\ForecasterSarimax\ForecasterSarimax.py
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|